Forecasting: Principles and Practice 3rd (Ch9 ARIMA models)

https://otexts.com/fpp3/

exponential smoothing基於trend和seasonality; ARIMA則是基於autocorrelations.

Exponential smoothing and ARIMA models are the two most widely used approaches to time series forecasting, and provide complementary approaches to the problem. While exponential smoothing models are based on a description of the trend and seasonality in the data, ARIMA models aim to describe the autocorrelations in the data.